The ‘inverted pyramid’: winners from new US food guidelines

Turning decades of nutritional policy on its head

To understand the magnitude of this shift, it is necessary to look back at the US Department of Agriculture’s original 1992 Food Guide Pyramid.

This guidance prioritised refined carbohydrates over nutrient-dense proteins and healthy fats. It was built on a foundation of 6-11 daily servings of grains such as bread, cereal, and pasta. Fats and oils were relegated to be used only sparingly.

The 2025-2030 Guidelines represent a near-complete reversal. In the new ‘inverted pyramid’ framework, grains have been moved to the bottom, while high-quality proteins, full-fat dairy and healthy fats now form the focus of a healthy diet.

This change reflects a broader mandate from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Americans to ‘eat real food’.²  The most significant aspects include:

• The new guidelines recommend a daily intake of 1.2-1.6 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight.
• The government has effectively declared a ‘war on added sugar’ by replacing the vague ‘10% of total daily calories’ recommendation with a hard limit of no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. Crucially, the guidance suggests that no added sugar is considered part of a healthy diet for children under four.
• The new recommendations endorse whole-food sources of fat, including full-fat dairy, eggs and red meat, as essential components of a nutrient-dense diet. 

The reach of the new guidelines

While consumer trends often take years to shift, the impact of these guidelines will be felt immediately through federal nutrition policy. The guidelines are not merely suggestions; they serve as a mandatory blueprint for how billions of dollars in public food expenditure should be allocated.

The most significant ramifications are likely to directly manifest themselves in two key areas, before influencing standards across the broader US market:

• School nutrition: The guidelines dictate the menus for about 30mn schoolchildren. UPFs currently make up nearly two-thirds of the caloric intake for the under-18s. We expect federal standards for school meals to be rewritten to prioritise high-quality protein and full-fat dairy while strictly limiting added sugars.
• Public assistance: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) currently supports 42mn low-income Americans, 78% of whom also receive health coverage through Medicaid. The government therefore has a clear financial incentive to shift how ‘food stamps’ are spent away from unhealthy food products that are associated with obesity and other health issues.

Structural winners from the ‘real food’ shift

Since the US accounts for nearly 30% of worldwide spending on food, this policy shift could materially affect the opportunity set in the global food sector. In our view, it stands to accelerate the transition towards healthier, more nutrient-rich diets that is already underway.

We believe that it therefore supports opportunities in five specific areas:

• High-quality protein. We expect the significant increase in recommended protein consumption to benefit high-quality aquaculture and dairy producers. This aligns with public health and wellness concerns and the rising penetration of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Leading farmed salmon producers are well-positioned, in our view, as the guidelines specifically endorse omega-3 rich seafood.
• Fresh produce. As the pyramid prioritises fruits and vegetables, we expect a long-term tailwind for market-leading producers.
• Herbs and spices. As Americans are encouraged to reduce sodium and added sugars, herbs and spices become essential tools for maintaining flavour in ‘real food’ meals. Spice and seasoning firms should be significant beneficiaries.
• Fermented foods and gut health. For the first time, US federal guidance explicitly endorses fermented foods such as kefir, sauerkraut and miso. We believe that market leaders in yoghurts and specialised cultures and enzymes should be well placed to benefit from this focus on microbiome health.
• Reformulation. Food manufacturers face a massive task in stripping added sugars from existing products. To overcome the technical challenge of meeting stricter limits while maintaining taste, many food manufacturers partner with specialist ingredient and food reformulation companies. 

A structural pivot for US food policy

The USDA’s revised guidelines signal a new direction of travel for the US food market. Given their potential to transform how US food spending is allocated, these policy changes cannot be overlooked by the global food industry – and investors in it.

By raising nutritional standards in a market currently dominated by ultra-processed foods, we believe the changes provide a powerful tailwind for leading providers of products and services that enable healthier diets.