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Black Friday and Cyber Monday: E-Commerce against a backdrop of high inflation

  • 24 November 2022 (5 min read)

Black Friday and Cyber Monday: E-Commerce against a backdrop of high inflation

Black Friday, the Friday after US Thanksgiving, has become one of the biggest days for online retail around the world. Alongside Cyber Monday - the Monday following US Thanksgiving - the two events have evolved into a month-long period of sales, marking the beginning of the holiday shopping season.

US Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales

Image

Source: Adobe Insights 2019, 2020, 2021

Image

Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2022

Against a backdrop of high inflation and a cost-of-living squeeze, retailers operating on Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year may feel the effects of supply chain issues, rising costs and decreased consumer spending. However, we believe the long-term growth prospects of e-commerce remain intact, especially as the world becomes increasingly digital.

Image

Year-on-year nominal growth 
of US holiday sales is 
expected to reach

7.5% 

E-commerce and mail-order sales will account for 55%
and could, at the end of the holiday season, reach $255bn.3


E-commerce penetration has continued to rise

We see the rise in Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales in previous years as part of a bigger picture of growth in global retail e-commerce.

Global retail e-commerce sales

Image

Source: Global retail e-commerce sales 2026, Statista. Note: Figures for 2022 and 2023 are forecasts.4

E-commerce rose from 15% of total global retail sales over 2019 to 21% in 2021. It now sits at an estimated 22% of sales.5


An evolving consumer landscape

The COVID-19 pandemic, technological advancements and cost-of-living pressures have served to drastically transform the landscape of retail and commerce.

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58% 

of internet users make online purchases each week.6

74%  

of internet users in the EU shopped online for personal consumption in 2021.7

Image
While the rising cost of living and its impact on consumer spending will be a headwind for businesses, we see e-commerce continuing to grow as a result of key structural changes in consumer behaviour and the ongoing digitalisation of the economy.

Companies that are agile and able to adapt to the current environment, while harnessing the power of data to be more productive and efficient, are more likely to see good growth.

Jeremy Gleeson, CFA

Digital Economy strategy manager


Sources: 

  • [1] Adobe: Consumers spent $10.8 billion on Cyber Monday, $109.8 billion so far this holiday season | Adobe
  • [2] 11 Black Friday and Cyber Monday Online Retail Stats - SaleCycle
  • [3] Will Amazon Deliver Its Usual Holiday Growth? | Bain & Company | 2022 Holiday Shopping Outlook | Bain & Company
  • [4] Global retail e-commerce sales 2026 | Statista
  • [5] Global Ecommerce Growth Forecast 2022 | Morgan Stanley
  • [6] Digital 2022: Global Overview Report — DataReportal – Global Digital Insights
  • [7] Online shopping ever more popular - Products Eurostat News - Eurostat (europa.eu)
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    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.