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Where can investors look within Euro Credit
Key points:Rates are likely to stabilise as disinflation takes hold but oil could still be a headwindCurrent yields offer attractive entry points for euro credi...
Bullish bonds, bearish risks and youthful reds
I’m not going to go on about the great bond rally we enjoyed in November. After all, I got it wrong during the third quarter (Q3) when the US economy boomed a...
Outlook Summary – Slowing mid-cycle, not crashing end-cycle
Key pointsFollowing 2023’s resilience, we expect global growth to slow in 2024 – this should be a mid-cycle adjustment, not an end-of-cycle collapse. 2025 s...
Outlook 2024: Global growth to slow but bonds geared-up for potentially strong gains
Key points:For 2024 we expect lower growth, lower inflation and limited interest rate easing. We forecast global GDP growth reaching 2.8%, down from an expected...
Rates Outlook – The year of bonds redux
Key pointsWhile monetary policy is quite restrictive, there are reasonable doubts about overall economic stanceDemand and supply conditions need careful monitor...
Equity Outlook – Thriving in the mist
Key points2023 was an unusual period for equity markets, which made gains despite sharp interest rates rises. However, only a handful of stocks drove these gain...
UK Outlook – Lags could push Bank of England to faster cuts
Key pointsAlthough BoE policy appears to have peaked, rising mortgage rates will continue to tighten monetary conditions throughout 2024We see the economy on th...
Japan Outlook – The Bank of Japan's year
Key pointsJapan is moving endogenously towards a period of slightly higher inflation, stimulated by rising wagesEconomic growth is likely to slow but it should...
Long term rates and debt evolutions, both in the US and in Europe
If markets are right about long real rates for US Treasury and European government securities, debt ratios will increase for some time. We must make sure...
Emerging Markets Outlook – living on the (dollar) edge
Key pointsEmerging markets (EM) are on a structurally sounder footing amid tighter global financial conditions. Access to international capital markets may rema...