Take Two: IMF downgrades global growth forecast; gold hits new high
- 28 April 2025 (3 min read)
What do you need to know?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) markedly downgraded its global economic growth outlook due to the ongoing uncertainty and tensions around trade tariffs. The organisation now expects growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026 – down from its January forecast of 3.3% for both years. This moves it closer to AXA IM forecasts, also lowered to 2.5% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026, down from 3.2% and 2.9% respectively. The US received the steepest downgrade among developed nations for 2025 growth, with the IMF now forecasting 1.8%, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%.
Around the world
Eurozone business activity stalled in April, constrained by a reduction in new orders and waning confidence in the year-ahead outlook, according to the bloc’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The composite reading, which includes both manufacturing and services data, slipped to 50.1 from 50.9 in March – barely above the 50 mark that indicates expansion. Elsewhere, the US composite PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.5 previously, a 16-month low, reflecting uncertainty over the economy and tariffs. Japan’s composite PMI returned to growth at 51.1 from 48.9, supported by a rebound in the country’s services sector.
Figure in focus: $3,500
The gold price surpassed $3,500 an ounce for the first time last week, as continued stock market volatility sent investors seeking a refuge from market turbulence. US stocks fell early last week as President Donald Trump levelled criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, heightening concerns about the central bank’s autonomy, but later rallied after Trump clarified he had “no intention of firing” Powell. The spot gold price has risen sharply from $2,623 an ounce at the start of this year, rising above $3,000 for the first time in March, driven by concerns over trade wars and recession fears. However, the more conciliatory tone from the US administration in recent days has seen it retreat from highs.
Words of wisdom: Earth Day
Observed annually on 22 April, it aims to promote awareness of the climate crisis and encourage efforts to protect the planet. Originally launched in 1970, this year’s Earth Day theme is ‘Our Power, Our Planet’, encouraging people to unite across the globe in support of renewable energy and calling for a tripling of clean electricity generation by 2030, harnessing solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal and geothermal power. Clean and affordable energy will also help drive economic growth, create jobs and improve health, as well as preserve biodiversity and protect ecosystems, the campaign group EarthDay.Org said.
What’s coming up
Monday sees Canada’s election take place. On Tuesday, a raft of Eurozone sentiment indices are published. On Wednesday, the Eurozone and US report estimates for first quarter GDP growth. The Bank of Japan meets to decide on monetary policy on Thursday - at its March meeting policymakers held interest rates at 0.5%, their highest level since 2008. Eurozone flash inflation data and US payroll numbers are published on Friday.
Subscribe to updates
Have our latest insights delivered straight to your inbox
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.
Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales, No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4BQ.
In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.
© 2025 AXA Investment Managers. All rights reserved