Following a highly challenging year, our expectation for 2023 and 2024 is to finally see inflation retreat against a backdrop of global growth slowing to its softest – barring the pandemic – since 2009. But while we anticipate a challenging road ahead, we expect a slow recovery emerging in 2024.
What should investors expect in 2023?
There were few places to hide in 2022. The backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. However fixed income investors stand to benefit most from the peak in inflation and policy rates, but equity markets while vulnerable, have the potential to rebound. We look at what 2023 could mean for both institutional and retail investors.
The current environment requires thoughtful investment strategies.
US outlook
The US economy looks like it’s heading for recession in early 2023, although we expect it will be mild.
Eurozone outlook
The macroeconomic environment, energy crisis and tighter monetary policy are likely to push the bloc into recession.
China outlook
China’s economic outlook is dependent on how it exits its ‘zero-COVID’ policy and reopens its economy.
UK outlook
Inflation should begin to gradually retrace in 2023 but political developments remain important.
Japan outlook
Japan’s economy looks set to remain robust, with growth supported by the reopening of the economy .
Emerging markets outlook
We expect GDP growth in emerging markets (ex.- China) to decelerate sharply then slowly improve in the second half of 2023.
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions
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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. The strategies discussed in this document may not be available in your jurisdiction.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.