July Global Macro Monthly - Temperature keeps on rising for central banks
- 27 July 2022 (10 min read)
Key points:
- Inflation continues to rise higher in multiple jurisdictions, hitting 40-year highs in the US, UK and Canada.
- Central banks are reacting to higher inflation and the threat to expectations with quicker and bigger rate hikes.
- The ECB joined the party with a surprise 50bps increases and introduced the Transmission Protection Instrument to minimise monetary policy fragmentation.
- The ECB’s task is made harder with political uncertainty again in Italy and risks to gas supply from Russia.
- The Fed continues to tighten aggressively, but looks unlikely to follow the BoC’s lead in raising by 100bps.
- Fed guidance from here will be tricky as it needs financial conditions to remain tight to restore price stability, but not tighten much further and induce recession.
- This threatens the more constructive risk asset outlook.
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions
Visit the investment instituteDisclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.
All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.
Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.