Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

September Global Macro Monthly - Summer passes, winter’s coming

  • 28 September 2022 (7 min read)

Key points

  • An energy crunch appears to be materialising with Germany and CEE countries most affected.
  • We forecast recession in the Eurozone, with a sharp contraction in coming quarters. The UK also looks set to experience recession, despite a fiscal package that has undermined confidence in UK markets.
  • Chinese activity struggles on housing restructuring and COVID. We lower our 2022 growth outlook to 3%.
  • US activity has been mixed, with falling gasoline providing short-term relief. Still there is overwhelming expectation of stagnation or outright contraction.
  • The Fed continues to tighten policy aggressively. While most other central banks follow, the dollar continues to rise, threatening broader instability.
  • Financial conditions have tightened. The rate outlook will ease only once tighter conditions visibly slow growth.
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