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Key points:Market pricing was a poor predictor of actual ECB decisions in the last interest rate hiking cycle. Detailed analysis suggests market expectations mo...

Key points:Mario Draghi’s latest speech offers a vade mecum to policy makers in the Post Covid world. It would take some convincing in Germany though, ev...

Stock markets are hitting all-time highs. And why not? Interest rates don’t look to be going any higher and there is no recession on the cards, least of all i...

Long awaited rate cuts to arriveFinancial markets have responded aggressively to central bank guidance that the peak of interest rates is likely behind us....

The Fed favours the PCE over the CPI, but the latter’s January print strengthens the point that, at least in the US, the last mile of disinflation could be ar...

I have only lived and worked in two countries. The UK (home) and the US (away). Currently the fortunes of the two could not be more different. The US economy is...

Key points:We explore the possibility that the US strong productivity gains stem from a surge in Intellectual Property investment since the middle of the last d...

Key points:With inflation falling, investors tend to stop thinking about inflation linked bonds.While falling, inflation is likely to remain uncertain.We believ...

Key points:Following a period of underperformance, small cap stocks look primed for a potential reboundValuations are looking very attractive versus large cap c...