Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

Mexico’s General Elections: Continuity likely but headwinds ahead

  • 21 May 2024 (10 min read)
KEY POINTS
Mexico’s general elections have more than 20,000 positions up for grabs. Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party leads the presidential race by a wide margin and could become the country’s first female leader.
A Sheinbaum presidency will likely be a continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies: higher social spending, fiscal rectitude, continued state support and control over Mexico’s energy sector.
Although Sheinbaum’s victory seems certain, she will face a series of challenges including a lack of supermajority in Congress, an ailing energy sector and the upcoming USMCA trade agreement review in 2026.
A Sheinbaum victory would also mean a continuation of AMLO’s policies which would likely have several positive implications for investors.

Anticipation is mounting for Mexico’s general elections on 2 June as citizens will cast their votes for a new president and legislature, as well as for numerous local government officials. Despite high approval ratings, incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (better known as AMLO) cannot seek re-election under the country’s rules limiting the head of state to one six-year term. The incoming president is scheduled to take office on December 1 and given current polling, we could see the election usher in Mexico’s first female leader.
These elections will be nothing short of monumental, with over 20,000 positions up for grabs, including 628 seats in Congress including 128 senators and 500 federal deputies. Overall, it signals that there will be significant changes to Mexico's political landscape. Amid pressing issues such as the state of the energy sector, nearshoring, and the forthcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review in 2026, the outcome could hold profound implications. Additionally, with both the US and Mexican presidential elections coinciding for the first time in over a decade, the interplay between these two nations adds complexity to this crucial electoral cycle.

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