Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

April Monthly Investment Strategy - US shifts outlook, who shall follow?

  • 26 April 2024 (10 min read)
KEY POINTS
Successive US reports, payrolls, inflation and retail sales led Fed Chair Powell to suggest that restrictive policy would likely be required for longer. We shifted our view to the Fed cutting twice this year, now from September.
Despite stickier inflation, real rates have risen as the scale of policy required to return inflation to target is reassessed. This is having global implications.
The ECB appears on track for a June cut, but markets question the BoE. Weaker domestic currencies may influence policy in Canada and Japan, and Emerging Markets. Rising rates also threaten local fiscal positions.
Beyond US dynamics, we focus on China, where recent data suggest that last year’s stimulus is finding more traction. We discuss the housing market, which we see acting as a drag, but avoiding crisis.
Geopolitical tensions have also built, both between Israel-Iran and with a continuing war in Ukraine.

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Full April 2024 Monthly Investment Strategy
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    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

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